2024 Great American Getaway 400 odds, lineup, predictions, time: Model gives surprising NASCAR at Pocono picks

Pocono Raceway has been hosting NASCAR races since 1974, and it will do so once again on Sunday when the Cup Series visits the Long Pond, Pa., track for the 2024 Great American Getaway 400. Denny Hamlin has won three of the last five races at Pocono including when the Cup Series last visited in 2023. A win at the 2024 Great American Getaway 400 would help get his season back on track. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver hasn’t finished in the top 10 since a second-place finish on June 2. More recently, he led for 70 laps at Nashville but finished a disappointing 30th.

Despite his recent woes, Hamlin is still the 17-4 favorite in the 2024 Great American Getaway 400 odds. Cup Series leader Kyle Larson has three top-10 finishes in his last five starts and is listed at 5-1 in the NASCAR at Pocono odds. The green flag drops at 2:30 p.m. ET. Before making any 2024 NASCAR at Pocono predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Great American Getaway 400 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure’s model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.’s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano’s Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch’s Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin’s triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson’s wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas. 

Then it called its first winner of the 2024 season with Larson in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout and predicted Hamlin’s wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It also impressively nailed five of Larson’s wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 18 winners since 2021, including nine last year and three in the first seven races this season. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2024 Great American Getaway 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Pocono leaderboard.

Top 2024 Great American Getaway 400 predictions

For the 2024 NASCAR at Pocono race, the model is high on Brad Keselowski, even though he’s a 15-1 longshot in the latest 2024 Great American Getaway 400 odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The RFK Racing driver is hanging on to 10th in the Cup Series standings and has nine top-10 finishes on the season to go along with a victory at Darlington earlier this year.

Keselowski has also found success at Pocono, winning at “The Tricky Triangle” in 2011. He has four top-5 finishes in his last seven races there, including a third-place finish in 2021 when he led for 31 laps. His history at the track should boost his confidence heading into the 2024 Great American Getaway 400. Keselowski is an absolute steal at his current odds, so you shouldn’t hesitate to use him in 2024 NASCAR at Pocono bets.

Another massive shocker: Hamlin, the Vegas favorite at 17-4, barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in the 2024 NASCAR Pocono starting lineup. Hamlin thought he’d captured a record-breaking seventh win at Pocono in 2022 after taking the checkered flag at the M&M’s Fan Appreciation 400 but was later disqualified for failing a technical inspection.

It was a massive statement from NASCAR in the new era of the Next-Gen Car and Hamlin would rebound to win at Pocono in 2023. However, he’s been struggling of late and hasn’t collected a top-10 finish in his last five NASCAR Cup Series starts. He’s also finished outside the top 20 in six of his last 12 starts and that’s a big reason why the model is shying away, even at Pocono. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.

How to make 2024 NASCAR at Pocono picks

The model is also targeting one other driver with 2024 Great American Getaway 400 odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs this driver could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2024 Great American Getaway 400, and which longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Pocono odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at Pocono leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 18 winners, including three already this year.

2024 Great American Getaway 400 odds, drivers, lineup

See the full NASCAR at Pocono picks at SportsLine.

Denny Hamlin 17-4
Kyle Larson 5-1
Christopher Bell 15-2
Martin Truex Jr. 15-2
Tyler Reddick 8-1
William Byron 19-2
Chase Elliott 12-1
Ty Gibbs 12-1
Brad Keselowski 12-1
Ryan Blaney 15-1
Kyle Busch 20-1
Chris Buescher 25-1
Ross Chastain 25-1
Joey Logano 25-1
Alex Bowman 28-1
Bubba Wallace 30-1
Daniel Suarez 75-1
Noah Gragson 100-1
Josh Berry 100-1
Chase Briscoe 125-1
Todd Gilliland 150-1
Michael McDowell 150-1
Erik Jones 150-1
Austin Cindric 200-1
A.J. Allmendinger 250-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 250-1
Carson Hocevar 250-1
Austin Dillon 250-1
Justin Haley 300-1
Ryan Preece 300-1
Zane Smith 500-1
John Hunter Nemechek 500-1
Corey Lajoie 500-1
Harrison Burton 1000-1
Daniel Hemric 2000-1
JJ Yeley 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1