It’s Looking Bleak for Kamala Harris. This Is What’s Happening Right Now.

Fox News Called the Election for Trump. Most Others Haven’t—Yet. The Network’s Vibe Right Beforehand Said It All.

2:01 a.m.: What else is there to say?

Although the former president’s victory has not yet been officially declared by many, his supporters on the scene in states such as Georgia, Nevada, and Tennessee have clearly been looking at the night’s election returns and inferring the same thing as the rest of us: In two and a half months, it’s pretty likely that Donald Trump will return to the White House.

How Belief, Faith, and Conspiracies Shaped the Race

Tucker Carlson’s talk about demons didn’t come out of nowhere.

1:05 a.m.: Molly, you kept a close eye on how belief shaped this election cycle. What’s one of your biggest takeaways from a year of analyzing Christian religious movements and exploring the conspiracy theories that inevitably popped up about the candidates?

Molly Olmstead: I do think the thing that continues to blow my mind a bit is how much the white evangelical demographic has evolved since they first voted for Donald Trump in 2016. “Evangelical” itself has become a bit more of a politically loaded term than a theological one, for starters. Some studies showed that lots of people came to identify as “evangelical” because of Trumpism. They saw the term as a cultural signifier, without necessarily stopping to think about what made them “evangelical” in a technical sense.

But more importantly than that, the COVID pandemic and the public health mandates from it really radicalized a lot of Christians. A lot of evangelicals, understandably frustrated by the isolation of the pandemic, were drawn to churches that defied stay-at-home orders—or at least churches that voiced dissent. Or they tapped into online Christian groups or followed Christian internet celebrities and were exposed to a lot of anger toward the Biden administration that way. Also interestingly, a lot of these churches that defied stay-at-home orders—and internet evangelists—are very into the supernatural. By that I mean: They take the idea of fighting demons seriously, and that fighting includes in the political realm. A certain kind of demon talk, which would have been pretty fringe back in 2015, has taken over MAGA Christianity.

I know you saw a fair amount of demon talk at the Christian revival you went to over the summer that was meant to encourage Trump voter turnout. 

Yes. And at these events, religious leaders relay political messaging from God in the form of prophecies. Christian prophets are happy to tell Trump supporters that God’s marching orders involve getting out the vote for Trump, because leading the U.S. is his divine destiny.

This all matters because these Christians are coming to think of presidential elections as a cosmic battle between good and evil, in a black-or-white way. You simply can’t compromise with the devil—So you can’t compromise with Democrats. That mentality influences the whole political discourse, but it’s particularly concerning if you consider the possibility of a Trump loss. No good Christian would let demonic forces take control of the White House without some kind of fight.

It’s Looking Bleak for Harris

12:10 a.m.: Around midnight, the situation is looking pretty dire for Kamala Harris.

Trump has won North Carolina, and is on the brink in Georgia by a similar margin. If he wins both of those two states, Kamala Harris’ narrow path rests on winning the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

Those states don’t look great for her either, though. All three states right now are leaning narrowly in Trump’s direction, as Trump continues to build his advantages among rural voters and trim Harris’ margins in cities, while Harris isn’t getting the extra juice she needs out of suburban counties. It’s not that the shifts toward Trump are all massive on a county-by-county level. But they are relatively consistent, and these states were all decided narrowly in 2020. In key counties—like very blue Dane County in Wisconsin, home to Madison—Harris is neither significantly increasing Democrats’ margins nor making up for its turnout relative to 2020.

It’s still too early for the networks to call any of the “Blue Wall” states, and some major metropolitan areas will still take time to fully count. The Harris campaign is calling for patience and insists that it will take more time. It might take more than that. —Jim Newell

The Convicted Candidate

So, uh, apropos of nothing much at all, what’s the status of those Trump trials?

12:08 a.m.: Shirin! You’ve been following the Trump trials all year, and saw Donald Trump in court. What are a few things you learned from following all of those trials closely?

Shirin Ali: The former president’s defense attorneys are working around the clock—some of them are simultaneously working on multiple of Trump’s cases—but they’re using the same strategy: deflect and delay. In nearly every case, they have argued that Trump’s actions were protected through presidential immunity and that moving forward with any trial would be unfair, citing the November election. It’s a pretty aggressive strategy and it mostly worked; Trump’s attorneys got the Supreme Court to intervene in his federal Jan. 6 case and it led to a historic presidential immunity decision that mostly went in his favor. Now every judge in each of Trump’s cases has to consider the impact of the decision and reassess prosecutors’ cases.

As briefly as you can, could you sum up where each of the four trials stands now?

The Georgia election interference case is locked in a contentious appeals process—with no assigned court date. Trump was convicted in the New York hush money trial, but his sentencing has been delayed until after Election Day. Both federal criminal cases have run into roadblocks. The election interference case is moving forward with mandated filing deadlines, but there is also no court date set. The classified documents case was dismissed, but special counsel Jack Smith has appealed that decision and hopes to revive it.

What might we see next, postelection, from the Trump trials?

One of the first things we’ll see is a sentencing in the New York hush money case—regardless of who wins the election. The sentencing is scheduled for Nov. 26, and there is a chance Trump could face prison time. And while the federal election interference case moves forward, there’s a good chance it will end up back at the Supreme Court, as Trump is expected to appeal any unfavorable rulings from the district court judge overseeing that case.

So can Trump just vacate his felony conviction in the hush money trial if he wins?

Because Trump was convicted in a state court, even if he’s elected president, he would not have the authority to vacate his felony conviction. However, as president, Trump technically could direct his Justice Department to drop both of the federal criminal cases he faces. He said he planned to in a recent interview, where Trump called the special counsel “a crooked person” and said “I would fire him within two seconds. He’ll be one of the first things addressed.”

Why Ohio’s Democratic Senator Lost His Race

One very specific lobbying group is responsible here.

11:45 p.m.: The Ohio senior senator, Democrat Sherrod Brown, has lost reelection after 18 years in the senate. Despite running as a Democrat in an increasingly red, one-party state, Brown was widely expected to win reelection. The fact that he did not is owed to an unlikely culprit: not Brown, nor his opponent, scandal-plagued car dealer Bernie Moreno, but the crypto industry.

This newfangled lobby has spent massively in this election cycle, the most by any outside group. They raised over $200 million and spent much of it in House races. But nowhere did crypto spend more lavishly than in the Ohio senate race, where they dropped a stunning $40 million on the race to boost Moreno and ding Brown, who is known for his work cracking down on financial fraud in the banking sector.

Taking down Brown is a massive win for the industry, which has already shown no signs of slowing: Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has already pledged another $25 million to the industry’s super PAC, Fairshake, to build upon the gains they were anticipating coming during Election Day.

The crypto industry has tried to present itself as bipartisan, but major crypto industry players have allied themselves strongly with the Republican Party, and Donald Trump in particular. It’s part of the reason Bitcoin has soared on election night. And the industry can now claim to have delivered a critical Senate seat to Republicans, who were able to direct tens of millions of dollars to other races, as a result.

We don’t yet know what the composition of the incoming Senate will be yet, but it seems very likely that the industry will get the very soft touch regulatory package it has been fiercely lobbying for. —Alexander Sammon

Not Too Many Senate Surprises Tonight

The antithesis of fun!

11:38 p.m.: We’re still waiting on results for many of the most pivotal Senate races. But there’s another category, a layer further out, that we might call Reasonable Fantasy Races. (Or, as normal people might call them, “reaches.”) These were races in which some combination of unpopular incumbents or strong recruits made typically uncompetitive races more interesting than they should’ve been.

But like most fantasies, they were all quashed with a hammer, shaming the person who ever believed in them.

In Maryland, Republicans hoped that popular former Gov. Larry Hogan might defeat Democratic county executive Angela Alsobrooks for an open seat in deep-blue Maryland. There were even a couple of neck-and-neck polls over the summer suggesting he might have a chance. Those polls, however, were premature, and Alsobrooks ran an effective ad campaign reinforcing to Democratic voters that Hogan—like him or not!—would contribute to a Republican Senate majority. Alsobrooks won.

The parallel races for Democrats were in Texas and Florida, the only vaguely flappable Senate seats on the map for Democrats this year. Dallas-area Rep. Colin Allred put a good, though not Betomania-esque, fight to GOP Sen. Ted Cruz. The polls got awfully close! But in the end, Trump put on a dominating performance in Texas and dragged Cruz to a comfortable victory.

Even more distant was the hope that former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell could take down GOP Sen. Rick Scott in Florida. But Florida, to the extent it wasn’t before, is now a safe red state. Mucarsel-Powell lost by 13.

Maybe next cycle someone will do something fun, Senate-wise. But with the Senate being the antithesis of fun, I wouldn’t bet on it. —Jim Newell

Multiple States Expand Abortion Protections, but Florida Becomes First Since Roe Not to Do So

11:14 p.m.: Ten states have abortion on the ballot this year, and so far, the results are pretty much as expected. Maryland and Colorado, both of which already allow abortion with no gestational limit, passed initiatives that will enshrine abortion rights in their state constitutions.

In New York, where opponents of a beefed-up equal rights amendment ran a vicious campaign stoking fears about trans people, voters passed it by a wide margin. The amendment will prevent the New York state Legislature from enacting abortion restrictions in the state, where abortion is currently legal.

Florida was a different story. Abortion-rights advocates waged a massive, well-coordinated campaign across the state for an amendment that would nullify the state’s six-week abortion ban and add the right to abortion to the state constitution. They won over many conservatives, including supporters of Gov. Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, and ended up with 57 percent of the vote. But because the state has a 60 percent threshold for new constitutional amendments, it wasn’t enough. Tonight, Florida became the first state since the overturning of Roe v. Wade to see an abortion-rights ballot initiative fail. —Christina Cauterucci

Oh, You’re “Projecting” It’s “Too Early to Call”? Maybe Shut Up, MSNBC!

This is the most infuriating thing happening on cable news tonight.

11 p.m.: I love television. As Homer Simpson said in 1994: “Television! Teacher, mother, secret lover.” It’s only when waiting for election results do I feel betrayed by what television—my best friend—is doing to me. Nothing spoils the joy of watching television than the perpetual, unhelpful, nauseating announcement of races that are “too close to call.”

Every 15 fucking minutes, here’s Rachel Maddow telling me that a race is simply too close for them to announce a winner. This, of course, is announced with the kind of fanfare that you might use to announce an actual goddamn winner: banners, lights, whizzing visuals that halt the panelists midsentence. Worse, maybe, is when they announce that a race is no longer too early to call, but is instead “too close” to call. This is a distinction without a difference, like a man saying that he’s not married, he’s simply monogamously tied up.

Does the announcement of nothing have to come with the same frenetic graphics the news might employ to announce Moo Deng’s death? I know television anchors have a lot of airtime to fill, and a lot of rapt, tear-filled eyeballs to entertain. But I have blood pressure to try to keep down! This is stressing me out! —Scaachi Koul

The Trump Campaign’s Most Dramatic Moment Could Be Its Most Important

It was an assassination attempt, after all.

10:42 p.m.: Jim, all year you have documented who is up and who is down in your weekly newsletter, the Surge. What was one truly ridiculous story that you feel went a little bit under the radar this year?

Jim Newell: The story itself was one of the most over-the-radar ones of the year: The assassination attempt against Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania. What I feel has been underappreciated, though, is the long-term impact of it. A lot of Democrats might think it had no lasting effect on the race, and Republicans consistently moan about how the press doesn’t mention it anymore. But since the attempt, Trump’s net favorability has been consistently about 4 points better on average than it was before, arguably to the best numbers of his career. The aftermath of the attempt was also huge for Trump in unifying the Republican Party behind him going into the convention—and it was the incident that prompted Elon Musk to endorse and put his resources behind Trump. Not to mention, Trump got an iconic photo out of it that still graces most of his campaign ads. It mattered. And if the race really is as close as public data would suggest, it could be the difference maker.

We’re Getting 2020 Flashbacks

Brace yourselves!

10:18 p.m.: Bad news for those of you who didn’t care for 2020’s extended period of vote-counting uncertainty: We may be in for one of those situations again. In the swing state of Georgia, for instance, Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in 2020 by half a point. This year, Trump is doing better than he did that year in rural counties, but Kamala Harris is doing better in suburban ones. Confounding the situation even further is that early voting vs. Election Day voting patterns are different this year because the country is no longer in the midst of the COVID pandemic.

Long story short, no one has called Georgia yet, but we know for sure that Harris isn’t running away with it. Same goes for North Carolina. Even assuming Trump does win those states, though, he’d still need to also win at least one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—which are themselves still early in the counting process—to win the presidency. We already know that a big batch of ballots in Milwaukee isn’t going to get counted until Wednesday morning at the earliest because of a technical problem. Pennsylvania is also going to take forever, technically speaking, because its state laws don’t allow early-voting ballots to be counted until Election Day.

Point being: You might want to either get a cup of coffee or go to bed (possibly for several days). —Ben Mathis-Lilley

One of the Prosecutors Going After Trump Wins Reelection

But the fate of her election interference case remains uncertain.

9:57 p.m.: Embattled Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis prevailed tonight in her race for reelection against Republican challenger Courtney Kramer. Willis is leading a massive criminal case against Trump and 18 others for election interference, though it’s currently tied up in appeals. Earlier this year, a defendant in her case accused Willis of misconduct related to her romantic relationship with special prosecutor Nathan Wade, whom she had hired to work on her investigation. During a dramatic evidentiary hearing, Willis admitted to having a romantic relationship with Wade after he was hired but denied any misconduct. A judge ultimately ruled she could stay on the election interference case, so long as Wade resigned, which he did. Trump’s defense attorney appealed that decision, and as an appeals court considers arguments, the future of Willis’ case remains uncertain.

Kramer entered the race largely because of Willis’ Trump indictment. She claimed the district attorney was “using her office for political reasons” and that the resources going to Willis’ prosecution of the former president “could have been used for many other things that would have been much more beneficial for the citizens of Fulton County.” Kramer interned for the White House counsel’s office under the former Trump administration. However, Kramer said she would recuse herself from the election interference case if she were to become DA, since she had previously worked with two of the defendants charged.

Willis raised $2.5 million for her reelection, though Fulton County is a solidly Democratic pocket of Georgia and hasn’t seen a Republican run for district attorney since 2000. —Shirin Ali

Catching Up With Tucker Carlson’s Demon

Takes one to know one.

9:37 p.m.: Molly, a weird thing happened this week that was seemingly unrelated to the election but did involve one of Trump’s top surrogates. What I’m trying to say is … will you catch us up on Tucker Carlson’s demon sighting?

Molly Olmstead: Yes, well, Tucker Carlson seems to have adopted some new beliefs since he was fired from Fox News in 2023. Carlson was raised Episcopalian and has been largely secular most of his life. But it seems like that might have changed when he experienced a … demonic attack. As he described it in a video published from an upcoming pro-Christian film, Carlson woke up in the middle of the night with deep scratches down his sides. He was asleep with his wife and four dogs (he doesn’t address the possibility of the dogs being the culprits), and no one else was disturbed. Afterward, he felt an urge to read the Bible.

In a discussion with Steve Bannon on Monday, Carlson made it clear he still believed he had experienced something occult: “I think it was just a momentary glimpse of something that’s happening at all times, which is, again, this war between forces that we can’t see.”

Do you think … there’s a political reason for this?

Well, maybe it’s not so surprising that Carlson is having a religious journey. He’s been increasingly pushing the J.D. Vance style of conservative politics: longing for a sort of European, traditional family vision of society with no immigration, nationalist economics, and more support for the working class. A socially conservative, fiscally liberal Republican Party. And supporting “Christian values” helps with that vision.

So even if he’s not having a genuine conversion, he’s probably finding it useful to speak to people through that lens. In that same Bannon interview, he said that America has been in decline since the bombing of Hiroshima, because we “decided that we were gods” and stopped believing in God. He also said that hurricanes are a result of people having abortions. (“You can’t participate in human sacrifice without consequences.”) He also made it clear he was all in on thinking of the fight over worldviews through a spiritual lens: “Culture is downstream from the spiritual battle. So not only is the battle in the unseen world—not only is it part of what we’re seeing, it is actually what we’re seeing. We’re seeing the physical manifestations of something that’s been going on for eternity.”

The Nazi Porn Guy Lost His Governor’s Race

9:10 p.m.: Democrat Josh Stein has been elected the governor of North Carolina, keeping the governor’s mansion blue. No huge surprise there: His opponent, Mark Robinson, was the man who had called himself a “Black NAZI” in a porn website’s comments, as CNN reported. Stein, the current attorney general, had pitched himself as a man who cared about public education, housing, and health care—a forward-looking and competent alternative to Robinson’s petulant culture wars.

Robinson’s campaign, from the beginning, was bogged down by the relentless stream of cartoonishly offensive comments dug up from Robinson’s internet history. A man with a diehard love of posting, Robinson called Martin Luther King Jr. a “commie bastard” and “worse than a maggot”; said “slavery is not bad”; complained about Jewish filmmakers creating movies “to pull the shekels” out of your pockets; argued that women shouldn’t complain about sexual harassment while wearing “whore dresses”; called school shooting survivors “media prosti-tots”; and labeled LGBTQ people as “filth.” (At one point, Trump called Robinson “Martin Luther King on steroids.”)

There were other scandals: the comments about “some folks need[ing] killing”; the news that his wife had been sued by the Girl Scouts; the reporting that a nonprofit run by Robinson’s family was accused of fraud, or that a child care center run by Robinson and his wife had been reckless about child safety. It must have been exhausting for his staffers; most of them quit after the CNN report.

It was more than a little baffling that Republicans ran such a toxic candidate in a winnable race in a battleground state of huge importance for the presidential election. If Trump loses North Carolina, Republicans can justifiably direct at least some of their fury at the people who thought a loose cannon like Robinson was a good idea. —Molly Olmstead

Trump Wins Big in Florida

But what does that mean for him in the Electoral College?

9:06 p.m.: Donald Trump has won Florida, as expected, and he’s won it big: Leading by 13 points, 56 to 43, with greater than 95 percent of the vote counted according to the New York Times. The final FiveThirtyEight polling average showed Trump winning the state, which went uncontested and in which fewer polls were conducted this cycle, by 6.6 percent.

There was one poll, however, that appears to have nailed it: A New York Times/Siena poll in early October that showed Trump winning the state by 13. NYT/Siena used a different polling methodology this year than many other, more conservative pollsters used, allowing NYT/Siena possibly to detect more movement among the electorate.

An important takeaway from the Times’ polling analyst Nate Cohn at the time was that such a result in Florida—when paired with a neck-and-neck national poll—could be proof of Trump’s Electoral College edge narrowing. Being effectively tied nationally while winning a greater share of a large state like Florida would show his coalition becoming more “inefficient” if similar dramatic gains aren’t showing in battleground states. So the shorthand of the last couple of cycles—that Democrats would need to win the popular vote by at least 3 points to have an advantage in the Electoral College—may no longer be applicable. —Jim Newell

You Can Probably Guess How It’s Going on Fox News Right Now

8:46 p.m.: As a man who watches right-wing media for a living, I am not easily shocked by hypocritical political rhetoric. And yet I am always a little bit staggered by the blatancy of Fox News’ efforts to downplay the events of Jan. 6, 2021. If violent Democratic voters had overrun the U.S. Capitol to prevent the certification of a Republican presidential candidate’s electoral victory, the story would still be leading every single programming hour on Fox News today, almost four years later. But because the Trumpist right was the culpable party, Fox News talking heads are forced to pretend that the events of Jan. 6 were the equivalent of a mildly rowdy picnic.

Even so, for such an alleged nothingburger, Jan. 6 sure seems to still come up a lot on right-wing television. It came up again shortly after 8 p.m. on Fox News, when Martha MacCallum noted that the topic was “hammered over and over again by former president—current President Biden, the former candidate—you know, ‘the threat to democracy’ was really on his lips every minute.”

“And Vice President Harris really didn’t take that ball for a lot, but she did come back to it toward the end of the campaign,” said MacCallum’s co-anchor, Bret Baier.

“The thing about it that I think is striking is it shows you the power of the media,” said panelist Brit Hume. “Cause, in many ways, it’s a B.S. issue, when you think about it. I mean, go back to Jan. 6, which was supposed to be the moment when we all thought we should fear this, and ‘our democracy was fragile.’ It was the premise of the January 6 Special Committee—that, as the co-chairman of the committee put it, we came critically close to losing our democracy. It’s ridiculous. I mean … our democracy’s pretty sturdy. Our checks and balances worked. Um, the thing was over in a matter of hours. And yet, here we are, it’s still a factor.”

Couldn’t tell you why that might be! —Justin Peters

Be Careful How You Think About the Polls Tonight

So, uh, what does your GUT say?

8:27 p.m.: Ben! You’ve been considering the polls all year, and how best to parse them. What are some things you want people to keep in mind about the polls, and their limitations, heading into election night?

Ben Mathis-Lilley: Well, I’ve been convinced by the cases being made that pollsters who are worried about underestimating Trump again—and who are having a lot of trouble getting responses from voters in the first place in an era of rampant cellphone spam—are herding their polls together to show a tied race. That said, this wouldn’t necessarily mean Harris is going to win by a lot; the swing states could still be close even if she has a lead nationally.

What does your gut say about what’s going to happen?

Hahahaha. Ha. I would never trust my gut, but I did write Tuesday about how I think the case for Kamala Harris winning is an easier one to make than the case for Trump winning, given the improving economy, Trump’s lingering associations with Jan. 6 and the Dobbs decision, and the success that mainstream Democrats have had against MAGA Republicans over the last four years.

Earlier this year, you attended the Michigan GOP convention, as the state party was split between two rival factions. What did the experience show you about the current state of the Republican Party?

It seems that it’s been taken over in large part by people who truly and sincerely believe there was a conspiracy to steal the election from Donald Trump in 2020. Which could spell some trouble—for, like, society—if he loses again in 2024.

You wrote about the New York Times’ election night recipes last year, and their giant jam bun this year. What will you be snacking on this election night?

Great question. Once our kids fall asleep my wife is going out to dinner with her sister as a reward for watching them all afternoon and night and for large parts of the next three to 100 days. So I’ll be eating whatever they bring back.

I Have Discovered the Absolute Weirdest Way to Learn the Election Results

Want to know what Bill O’Reilly is thinking about Trump and Harris right now? Good news!

8:10 p.m.: If you’ve cut the cord with cable over the past few years, then you may not have noticed that, in 2021, the former WGN America rebranded as a 24/7 news network called NewsNation. The network’s working thesis, as far as I can tell, is that America is hungry for center-right news and opinion delivered almost exclusively by a roster of cable news has-beens. NewsNation’s anchors include Chris Cuomo, late of CNN; Ashleigh Banfield, of CNN and CourtTV; Dan Abrams, of ABC and MSNBC; Leland Vittert, formerly of Fox News; and several other people about whom you’ve probably never wondered, “Hmm, I wonder what happened to them?”

NewsNation has a brand, in other words, as strange as that brand might be, and its election night coverage has thus far doubled down on the network’s cable-retread rehabilitation program. Around 7 p.m., Chris Cuomo welcomed former Fox News host Bill O’Reilly—whom he introduced as the “host of the No Spin News,” which, as far as I can tell, is a webcast hosted on O’Reilly’s own website—for some election commentary. “Corey Lewandowski was just on; he said something that was interesting [that] I want your take on,” Cuomo said. “He said there are several issues here that have been working well for Donald Trump. However, if the election comes down to a personality contest, he could lose. Harris could do well, he said. What’s your interpretation of what that means?”

O’Reilly, who is looking oddly corpselike these days, paused for several seconds before answering. “I think it’s gibberish,” he finally said, and Cuomo burst out laughing on-air. NewsNation is clearly a network for commentators who have no shits left to give, and I am honestly looking forward to seeing which cable-news retread they drag out of mothballs next tonight. Fingers crossed for a John Stossel sighting! —Justin Peters

Kornacki Is Wearing a Sick New Pair of Slacks

8 p.m.: Everyone’s favorite indefatigable numbers guy, Steve Kornacki, is back at a digital map doing his thing tonight; there’s even a special “Kornacki Cam” for those watching the returns on Peacock. (Kornacki’s thing, of course, is immediately metabolizing new numbers and telling us what they mean—his ability was showcased when he was on live TV for several days on end thanks to 2020’s elongated vote-counting process.) The masses’ excitement for the dapper, clear-spoken Kornacki (2028 ticket, anyone?) was so high this election season that New York magazine caught up with him earlier this month, hoping to answer the most urgent question of the 2024 cycle: Will he wear those 2020 election-night khakis again, paired with his iconic white shirt and colorful tie?

Kornacki demurred in that interview, but we have our answer: The shirt and tie are pretty much the same, but the pants, the pants are blue tonight! And yes, everyone noticed. Yet the pants weren’t the only switch-up in Kornacki’s looks. To quote my colleague and fellow war-room observer Nadira Goffe: “His hair looks darker, his skin looks paler, and it looks like they bumped up the contrast.” One thing’s for sure: However much our friend Steve may have adjusted his looks since 2020, he remains as comforting as ever, breaking down the complex series of county-by-county voting returns for a contest that may well depend on just a few of those precincts. —Nitish Pahwa

Not Midnight Soup

Here’s what Slate staffers in NY are eating right now.

7:48 p.m.: Tonight the Slate newsroom in New York is feasting on sushi platters (both rolls and sashimi), Detroit-style Jet’s pizza because #swingstates, buffalo wings, and salads. And lots of booze … of course. We will update you all if we decide to order a little sweet treat later in the night.

Here is a roundup of what newsrooms across the country are eating tonight (I may be biased, but I do think our order is the best. Though I am curious about this Bloomberg “near midnight” soup choice …)

I Have a Very Close Eye on Michigan Right Now, and So Should You

7:38 p.m.: Since April, I’ve had my eye on Michigan, especially on voters in places like Dearborn, the Detroit suburb with a large Arab and Muslim population that has been furious with the Biden administration since Israel began its onslaught in Gaza more than a year ago. That anger has transferred to Kamala Harris in the months since she’s declined to take a firmer stance against U.S.-supplied arms and support for Israel.

It’s been razor-close in Michigan, where the polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern, so even this relatively small group of voters could sway the results. Some people plan not to vote for president at all. Others have gone in for Donald Trump, hoping it will send a message to Democrats in the future.

Honestly, I don’t envy the position these voters are in. Many of them, particularly Palestinian Americans, have described their decision as “impossible.” Given that neither major candidate has signaled any real intention to change U.S. policy—even after credible accusations of genocide, use of starvation as a weapon of war, and Israel’s targeting of medical facilities, aid workers, and journalists—it’s clear they’re wrestling between making a political decision and a deeply personal, moral one. And many of them have also expressed disgust by the way their concerns have been dismissed as irrelevant by many Democrats. As one voter, Layla Elabed, a lead organizer for the uncommitted movement, put it to me, asking these voters to think “strategically” right now “is like asking who we are going to vote for while we are at a funeral.”

And here’s the thing. It feels like no outcome tonight will offer them anything close to a victory. If these voters manage to tank Harris by swinging Michigan for Trump, they’ll be blamed by Democrats. But if they don’t make a dent, it could make their organizing seem irrelevant. It’s a lose-lose situation. I’m looking to see how this influences this election because some of these voters may not come back to the Democratic Party in the future. Many I’ve spoken to said they were just waiting for a sign that Democrats cared about their families, their culture, their people’s survival. They never got it from the Harris campaign. —Aymann Ismail

Some of Trump’s Kids Seem Anxious on Election Day. And Then There’s Ivanka.

7:35 p.m.: Donald Trump Jr. said on Election Day he’d fly to a “non-extradition country” if his father loses tonight. By contrast, Ivanka Trump—by far the most important of Trump’s children in his previous administration—seemed positively unbothered.

What was going through Ivanka’s mind the day before Election Day? Judging from her social media accounts, not her dad’s high-stakes quest to recapture the White House. Because rather than urging her followers to go vote or cheering her father on, Ivanka decided this week was the perfect time to post about her recent birthday—she turned 43 on Oct. 30—and some of her favorite pearls of wisdom she’s gathered in her life’s journey.

The eldest Trump daughter posted a 16-item list on Instagram (it went to 17 on Twitter for some reason) that includes such life lessons as, at No. 5, “Trust yourself,” and at No. 13, “Get curious.” It’s hard to imagine what kind of person might need to be told by Ivanka Trump to get more sunshine and nourish their body, right now, but thanks? Is she working with a life coach? Is this part of a plan to become a LinkedIn bro/tech CEO? She does quote Marcus Aurelius.

Ivanka was very present during Donald Trump’s first campaign and for his time as president, as was her husband, Jared Kushner. Two years ago, they announced their decision to step back from politics, and they’ve stuck to it, only very occasionally showing up to support Trump. Still, there’s a difference between staying out of things and actively counterprogramming, which is what a post like this so close to the election reads as. Ivanka had to know how it would look for her to show up in people’s feeds on this night of all nights talking about something other than the election. From that angle, posting this list reads as a snub, or at least an attempt to brand herself as separate from the rest of her family. I guess good luck to Ivanka in her efforts to “cultivate self-mastery” and “approach life with love and positivity.” The rest of us will be over here, watching her family’s fortunes unfold. —Heather Schwedel

The Gender Election

The Trump campaign is trying to get men … any men … to the polls

7:09 p.m.: This election is about gender, on a number of levels. Obviously, America might elect its first woman president—though she hasn’t been talking about that all that much. Also, Donald Trump and J.D. Vance, particularly Vance, have gotten into hot water for the way they’ve talked about women and how they have derided “childless cat ladies” and their investment in the future. Most particularly, as the end of Roe continues to reverberate around the country, women are mobilizing in record numbers, increasingly aware of their rights being on the ballot. Trump has mostly reacted to this by trying to mobilize men, and today, his surrogates sent out some very odd bat signals to the guys:

We’ll see what happens there. In case you missed it, Dahlia Lithwick wrote about why the women vote might be determinative this cycle. —Susan Matthews

Trump’s Getting an Early Start on the Election Denial

Who could have foreseen?!

7:03 p.m.: Welp, Trump is at it again. He took to Truth Social this afternoon to claim, without evidence, that there is “massive CHEATING in Philadelphia.” (Polls in Pennsylvania haven’t even closed yet; they’re open until 8 pm EST.) Seth Bluestein, city commissioner of Philadelphia, quickly responded that “there is absolutely no truth to this allegation.” Larry Krasner, district attorney of Philadelphia, also issued a statement taking a swipe at Trump. “The only talk about massive cheating has come from one of the candidates, Donald J. Trump.” Krasner also confirmed there was “no factual basis whatsoever within law enforcement to support this wild allegation.” He ended by inviting Trump to provide evidence of his allegations, though he said ”we are not holding our breath.”

This isn’t exactly surprising from Trump, who has been spouting lies about the election he lost four years ago, and still insists to this day that the vote in swing states like Georgia, Arizona and Michigan was rigged. Now on his third run for president, Trump has repeatedly refused to commit to accepting the outcome of this election. —Shirin Ali

Watch Wisconsin Results With the Sunrise?

This calls for more coffee.

6:53 p.m.: Real 2020 election heads remember the Milwaukee vote dump between 3 and 4 a.m. the last presidential election night. That’s when Milwaukee released the results from more than 100,000 ballots counted in a central facility, which put Joe Biden in the statewide lead. While it took a few more days to get other key states counted, the Milwaukee vote dump felt like the turning point from which Biden never looked back.

We were expecting a similar ballot drop late night this year, too—though ideally a couple of hours earlier. Unfortunately, it’s going to be later. More than 30,000 absentee ballots that that the state had to count will have to be recounted “out of an abundance of caution,” according to the Milwaukee Election Commission, because the doors on the ballot tabulators were not properly sealed. According to an Associated Press reporter in Wisconsin, this means the release of this huge batch of ballots “will likely be sometime after sunrise tomorrow.” So either prepare more coffee for the night, or definitely don’t drink more coffee tonight. —Jim Newell

Breathe In, Breathe Out, Take Our Quiz

6:49 p.m.: Are you freaking out? The New York Times had some novel suggestions during the 2022 midterms, including dunking one’s head in ice water. (We tried it.) Or try immersing yourself in some soothing, mindless tasks. Caramelize onions! Touch your toes! You don’t have to be glued to a screen. If the news is all you can focus on, might we suggest our 2024 election megaquiz? Test your memory—and remind yourself of your resilience. Because this whole year has been a LOT.

It’s Finally Here! Welcome to Slate’s Election Live Blog.

Maybe soon we’ll know when we’ll know, you know?

Hello! Welcome to Slate’s election live blog. Many of us are gathered in the same room of the same Brooklyn office where we experienced the 2016 election. We are hoping for a different result!

What is the plan for the evening? Polls start closing at 7 p.m. ET, but it will likely be about 9 p.m. ET before we get real information. And by real information we mean “tea leaves/indications of how this thing is going to go.” Really, what we’re hoping for is that by midnight, we’ll have an understanding of whether we’ll know who won tonight (well, in the early hours of tomorrow morning) or if we will be facing more of a 2020 situation, meaning it’s so close that it will take days to really figure out who won this thing. We’re hoping for the former, because we kept the live blog running for almost a week in 2020 and it was a lot.

Some suggestions for how to occupy your time until results start rolling in:

• For an incredibly detailed list of when various states close their polls, when each state made their call in both 2016 and 2020, and essentially a cheat sheet of what we are looking for in early returns, read this.

• For a fun roundup of how Slate staffers voted, and an even more fun roundup of who we think will win, check this out! —Susan Matthews