As possible Canada Post strike looms, who could see biggest impact?

After Canada Post presented its latest offer to workers, the risk of a looming disruption is likely leaving Canadians worried about what will happen with their mail.

The offers made Tuesday saw the Crown corporation vow to protect and enhance “what’s important to CUPW-represented employees,” including higher wage increases amounting to 11.5 per cent over four years and protections to workers’ pensions.

It said the offers “demonstrate the Corporation’s commitment to reaching negotiated agreements, without any labour disruption.”

The Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW) put out a statement on Wednesday that after its initial review of the offers, the corporation fell “short.”

Contract talks will see a cooling-off period expire on Saturday if a deal isn’t reached and while the union did not say if it would reject the offer, workers could legally strike as of Sunday if a 72-hour notice is given.

If strike action occurs by Canada Post workers, it would be rural communities that would likely feel the biggest impact, said Ian Lee, an associate professor of management at Carleton University.

“I don’t think the urban will even notice there’s a strike because we’re not using it,” he said in an interview. “In the small towns and villages and in rural Nova Scotia and in rural eastern Ontario, they’ll be screaming for sure.”

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That’s namely due to those areas possibly not having as many alternatives outside of Canada Post.

Yet while rural residents may see some of the biggest complications, there are still others who could be impacted, such as those who still rely on the postal service for things like delivery of any mailed benefit payments from the Canada Revenue Agency.

According to information provided during the 2018 Canada Post rotating strikes, the CRA encouraged people to sign up for direct deposit so as to avoid potential issues should a strike occur.

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The same goes for paying online, such as if you have to submit a payment to the agency.

Some provincial governments say they’re also already making plans in the event of a postal strike, with Quebec noting it is working to ensure government cheques are delivered on time and, like the CRA, encourage people to sign up for direct deposit to ensure they can receive the benefits directly.

While some Canadians might not think there would be a big impact from the strike on its U.S. relationship, American ex-pats living in Canada are being encouraged to take “immediate action” to ensure their ballots reach the other side of the border.

Democrats Abroad Canada said with approximately 625,000 eligible U.S. voters in Canada, a strike could mean ballots sent by mail “may not arrive in time to be counted.”

The group, though it is the official country committee of U.S. Democrats living in Canada, is advising all American ex-pats to look into potentially using express courier services like FedEx or UPS instead of regular mail to get their vote in on time.

Though Canada Post typically delivers both letters and parcels, the use of parcel services like UPS or FedEx is another option when trying to get packages delivered.

UPS, FedEx and Purolator, which is primarily owned by Canada Post, each told Global News they are ready to serve customers in the event of a strike and have contingency plans in place to ensure they can meet potential increased demand.

An Amazon official told Global News it is monitoring the situation and will take measures to minimize impact, however added that Canada Post delivers only a small percentage of orders. The official said orders are delivered through a mix of carriers, including Amazon Logistics and local courier services, depending on the customer’s location.

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Rafael Gomez, director of the Centre for Industrial Relations and Human Resources at the University of Toronto, told Global News that while there are alternatives, the overall system is “integrated” and so a strike could still have an impact even if you hope to not rely on Canada Post.

“If a strike did occur, any work stoppage occurred in this sector, it tends to have spillover effects because then you’re trying to redirect shipping to other players in the market who themselves then are displacing other shipments,” Gomez said. “So you can see the knock-on effects here.”

The negotiations come as Canada Post continues to face financial difficulties. It says it saw $490 million in losses from operations in the first six months of 2024, which is in addition to the loss of $748 million before tax seen last year.

With its latest offer, the corporation said it has also proposed submitting several items to binding-interest arbitration. The union has criticized this, saying it was “evident” Canada Post was “focused on pushing many of their issues to binding arbitration.”

The union also accused the corporation of asking it to gut the collective agreements.

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On Wednesday, Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon told reporters the government was working to facilitate a collective agreement, with both parties still at the bargaining table.

“We’re applying all the resources of the labour department, we work between the parties,” he said. “Canada Post can speak for itself; as the labour minister we’re working to facilitate an agreement.”

MacKinnon did not say if the federal government would intervene.

However, the options to do so may be limited — the Liberals are a minority government and would require at least one other party to pass any back-to-work legislation.

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