Vote counting begins – when will we know the results?
Vote counting is now underway at counting stations in India’s 543 constituencies. Paper ballots, cast by those who cannot vote electronically, will be counted first. Then electronic votes will be counted. These are cast on electronic voting machines, which have been used since 2,000.
Results are announced for each constituency as soon as counting is completed. India follows the first-past-the-post system, under which a candidate with the highest number of votes wins, regardless of garnering a majority or not.
Result trends generally become clear by the afternoon of counting day and are flashed on television news networks. The official count from the Election Commission of India can come hours later.
![Polling officials carry electronic voting machines (EVMs) at at a secure location.](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/8929231ee5c0e3de781e086920c3f20eb3d5f9f6/0_0_4928_2959/master/4928.jpg?width=465&dpr=1&s=none)
In past years, key trends have been clear by mid-afternoon with losers conceding defeat, even though full and final results may only come late on Tuesday night.
Celebrations are expected at the headquarters of Modi’s BJP if the results reflect exit poll predictions.
The winners of the general election are expected to form a new government by the middle of June.
After the ECI announces the results for all 543 seats, the president invites the leader of the party, or an alliance, which has more than half the seats to form the government.
The party or coalition with 272 or more seats then chooses a prime minister to lead the government.
![A man transports an electronic voting machine on a pony as election officials walk to a polling booth in a remote mountain area on the eve of the first round of voting at Dessa village in Doda district, Jammu and Kashmir, India, 18 April.](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/0fe349b05b47c2694d955b4b34bdde7368960e64/0_503_7548_4529/master/7548.jpg?width=465&dpr=1&s=none)
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For now, with all 543 seats reporting some results, the Modi-led NDA bloc leads in 292 of the 543 seats up for grabs, or 54%, with Modi’s party, the BJP, responsible for the vast majority of these leads.
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The opposition INDIA bloc has 222 seats, with the Congress party responsible for most of these votes. It is well ahead of the 181 needed to prevent the NDA from securing a two-thirds majority. But again, this is early days.
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Aside from the one seat won by the BJP by default in Surat, after every other candidate was either disqualified or dropped out, no seats have been called for any party.
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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s alliance has a majority in early vote counting trends, but the numbers as they stand at the moment are well short of the landslide predicted in exit polls.
n Only about 10%-15% of the total votes have been counted so far, according to Indian TV channels.
n BJP alone accounts for nearly 250 of the seats in which the NDA is leading, compared to the 303 it won in 2019. Its bloc, the NDA, needs to win at lest 359 to gain the two thirds majority that would allow it to change the constitution. Modi has set a goal of winning 400 seats.
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carry Electronic Voting Machines at an election vote counting station in Mumbai on 4 June 2024.”,”caption”:”Volunteers carry Electronic Voting Machines at an election vote counting station in Mumbai on 4 June 2024. “,”credit”:”Photograph: Punit Paranjpe/AFP/Getty Images”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Trends have also showed Modi leading, then trailing and leading again in his seat in the Hindu holy city of Varanasi.
n The first votes counted are postal ballots, which are paper ballots, mostly cast by troops serving outside their home constituencies or officials away from home on election duty.
n This year, postal votes were also offered to voters over 85 years of age and people with disabilities to allow them to vote from home.
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If you’re just tuning in: Counting began just over two hours ago, at 8:00 am (02.30 GMT), in key centres in each state, with the data fed into computers.
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Votes were cast on electronic voting machines, so the tally will likely be rapid, with results expected within hours.
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“People should know about the strength of Indian democracy”, chief election commissioner Rajiv Kumar said Monday, vowing there was a “robust counting process in place”.
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India’s largest ever election was staggering in its size and logistical complexity, with voters casting their ballots in megacities New Delhi and Mumbai, as well as in sparsely populated forest areas and in the high-altitude territory of Kashmir, AFP reports.
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India’s major TV networks have reporters outside each counting centre, competing to flash results for each of the 543 elected seats in the lower house of parliament.
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In past years, key trends have been clear by mid-afternoon with losers conceding defeat, even though full and final results may only come late on Tuesday night.
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Celebrations are expected at the headquarters of Modi’s BJP if the results reflect exit poll predictions. The winning post is a simple majority of 272 seats, and the BJP won 303 at the last polls in 2019.
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Nearly 970 million people, more than 10% of the world’s population, were eligible to vote. India, with a population of 1.428 billion, is the world’s most populous country after overtaking China last year.
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Turnout averaged 66% across the seven phases, according to official data, which means 642 million people voted: the most in any election in history worldwide. It was a 1% lower turnout than the 2019 elections.
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543: the number of seats up for grab in the Lok Sabha or lower house.
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272: the number of seats needed for a simple majority.
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400 seats: that is the number of seats the Modi-led NDA alliance is hoping to win – almost 75%, well above the two-thirds majority that would allow the NDA to make changes to India’s constitution.
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181: the number of seats the opposition INDIA alliance needs to win to prevent a two-thirds majority.
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officials check election materials inside an indoor stadium ahead of the seventh and last phase of India’s general election, in Kolkata, India, 31 May 2024.”,”caption”:”Polling officials check election materials inside an indoor stadium ahead of the seventh and last phase of India’s general election, in Kolkata, India, 31 May 2024.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Sahiba Chawdhary/Reuters”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1717467155000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”22.12 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1717475956000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”00.39 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1717475957000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”00.39 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”00.39″,”title”:”India’s election by the numbers”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 4 Jun 2024 01.35 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Mon 3 Jun 2024 22.12 EDT”},{“id”:”665e96be8f08d143a021c194″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
According to a flurry of exit polls released on Saturday night, Modi and his Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) are looking at a decisive win and may even gain seats to win a two-thirds majority in parliament, which would allow the government to make far-reaching amendments to the constitution.
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It would be a historic achievement for Modi, India’s strongman prime minister, whose Hindu nationalist politics have significantly re-shaped India’s secular democracy over the past decade.
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No prime minister since Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first post-independence premier, has won three consecutive terms.
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of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi worship a cutout of Modi on the day of the general election results, outside the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters in New Delhi, India, 4 June 2024.”,”caption”:”Supporters of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi worship a cutout of Modi on the day of the general election results, outside the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters in New Delhi, India, 4 June 2024. “,”credit”:”Photograph: Adnan Abidi/Reuters”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1717475006000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”00.23 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1717475153000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”00.25 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1717475154000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”00.25 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”00.25″,”title”:”Why would a third term for Modi be historic?”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Hannah Ellis-Petersen”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2023/05/17/Hannah_Ellis-Petersen.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=5f5ca201fce794930238eb0fa19fadf8″,”largeImageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2023/05/17/Hannah_Ellis-Petersen.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=8edbcd82d65ae850833c038d72544cc1″}],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 4 Jun 2024 01.35 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Mon 3 Jun 2024 22.12 EDT”},{“id”:”665e91e98f08d143a021c172″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
In this election, the BJP focused much of its campaign machinery – backed by vast financial resources – on winning seats in south India, particularly the states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
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Making a breakthrough into India’s southern states, among the richest and most well-educated in the country, is crucial to Narendra Modi’s ambitions to gain an even larger parliamentary majority in this election and extend the reach of the BJP to every corner of the country. However, it will be no easy feat for his party.
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Unlike across north India, where the BJP’s dominance is now largely assured, southern states such as Tamil Nadu and Kerala have continued to push back against Modi and the Hindu nationalist narrative of his party. The BJP has never won a seat in Kerala, and it won no seats in Tamil Nadu in the last election, in 2019.
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queue to cast their vote at a polling station in Kerala on 26 April 2024.”,”caption”:” People queue to cast their vote at a polling station in Kerala on 26 April 2024. “,”credit”:”Photograph: R Satish Babu/AFP/Getty Images”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The state’s chief ministers have also emerged as some of Modi’s fiercest critics and accused the BJP of depriving them of tax income and investment to punish and undermine their governments.
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But this time round, analysts predicted the BJP could make “significant inroads” in these states, “perhaps even winning a fair number of seats in Tamil Nadu”. “That would be a huge breakthrough for the BJP and could re-shape India’s electoral map in ways nobody thought possible five years ago,” said one analyst.
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Exit polls suggest that the BJP’s strategy may have paid off, with the party projected to win its largest ever number of seats in these states:
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The BJP manifesto “guarantees” India will become the third-largest economy in the world, from fifth-largest. The party promises, (if it wins, which it is likely to) to maintain high growth and low inflation while keeping budget deficit under control, Reuters reports.
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It also talks about boosting manufacturing and employment opportunities. But a new Modi government is likely to implement labour laws that make it easier for companies to hire and fire employees.
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The government has failed to create enough jobs during the last 10 years of power, which has led to sporadic protests from job seekers. According to private think-tank CMIE, the unemployment rate in India rose to 8.1% in April from 7.4% in March 2024.
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Modi also has not laid out firm plans to control high food prices, a key plank for the opposition during the campaign.
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load onions onto their trucks after auction at a market in Nashik. Almost every Indian meal requires an onion, one of the cooking essentials along with sugar and lentils that sweet-talking politicians use to gain favour with their voters by lowering costs.”,”caption”:”Farmers load onions onto their trucks after auction at a market in Nashik. 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The BJP’s manifesto promises a national code that will replace religion-specific civil laws in the country, a move many Muslims say is aimed at curbing centuries-old religious practices that the minority follows. Currently, Indians from different religions can follow laws specific to their faith or opt for a secular code. Laws on who and how many people a person can marry, how to end a marriage, and inheritance differ by religion. The new code will spell out the same set of rules for everyone.
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After Modi inaugurated a temple to the Hindu God Ram at a fiercely contested site earlier this year, fulfilling a long-held promise, party leaders have said another emphatic electoral victory would help them build temples on other disputed sites. Hindu groups have for long claimed that for centuries Muslim invaders built mosques over demolished Hindu temples. Courts are hearing cases against two such mosques in BJP-run Uttar Pradesh state: in Modi’s Varanasi constituency and in Mathura.
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Modi’s party has promised to implement an official report recommending elections to India‘s 28 state assemblies and national parliament at the same time, every five years. Currently, state elections do not need to coincide with national elections, leading to a situation where the country hosts one election or another every few months.
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Modi’s party also promises to maintain peace in the nation’s northeast, without mentioning the BJP-run and violence-torn state of Manipur where ethnic clashes have killed at least 220 people and displaced thousands. Many state residents say there is widespread disappointment over the inability of Modi’s government to end what critics have called a mixture of anarchy and civil war. Rahul Gandhi, Modi’s key rival from the Congress party, has repeatedly questioned Modi’s failure to visit the state despite the prolonged conflict.
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show their index fingers marked with indelible ink after casting their ballots to vote at a polling station in Amritsar on 1 June 2024, during the seventh and final phase of voting in India’s general election.”,”caption”:”Voters show their index fingers marked with indelible ink after casting their ballots to vote at a polling station in Amritsar on 1 June 2024, during the seventh and final phase of voting in India’s general election.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Narinder Nanu/AFP/Getty Images”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1717467155000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”22.12 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1717472688000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”23.44 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1717472688000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”23.44 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”23.44″,”title”:”What has the BJP promised voters?”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 4 Jun 2024 01.35 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Mon 3 Jun 2024 22.12 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There is little doubt among Indians that Narendra Damodardas Modi’s 10 years in power have already left an indelible mark on the country. To some it is the optimistic story of India rising to become the world’s fastest-growing economy, courted by powerful western leaders and multinational corporations; of efficient governance and technological advancements that have benefitted the public; and of the country freeing itself from the politics of elites and the “chains of colonisers” while reclaiming its historic Hindu civilisational greatness.
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Yet to others it is a story of democratic backsliding and growing authoritarianism; of crony capitalism and a growing chasm between rich and poor; of the erosion of freedom of the media and judicial independence; attacks on secularism, liberal institutions and civil society; of publicly condoned Islamophobia and growing state-sponsored persecution of minorities, primarily India’s 200 million Muslims.
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Such is the power of “brand Modi” that the BJP sits firmly in the shadow of its strongman leader. Modi’s face and name are attached to almost every government welfare scheme, and are visible on every government poster and even on people’s food rations and Covid vaccination certificates. The prime minister primarily refers to himself in the third person in speeches and will often address the people as “Modi ka parivar” [Modi’s family]. The party’s election manifesto was simply named “Modi’s guarantee”.
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According to Modi’s biographer Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, even as a child Modi displayed traits that would later define his political career. Recalling a conversation with one of Modi’s teachers from his time at school, Mukhopadhyay said: “Modi liked theatre a lot in school, but would only do leading roles. If he did not have the main role, he would not perform in that play. It’s a small glimpse into how he has always put himself at the centre of his own universe.”
n Modi was born in 1950 in a small town in northern Gujarat, as the third of six children, to a poor, lower caste family. Growing up, their house did not have electricity and his father produced cooking oil and ran a small tea shop next to the local railway station.
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It was as an eight-year-old child that Modi first wandered into the offices of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the rightwing Hindu paramilitary organisation that has worked for almost a century to push India towards becoming a Hindu state.
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To this day, over six decades on, RSS ideology remains the foundation of Modi’s political beliefs and his agenda as prime minister. Under his two terms, militant Hindu nationalism has become the dominant political ideology in India, while core RSS policies have been brought to fruition and RSS figures are present in almost all main institutions.
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Just under an hour into the count the bloc led by Modi’s BJP is leading in 272 seats to the opposition INDIA bloc’s 178 seats.
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Modi has set a target for the NDA bloc, led by the BJP, of winning 400 of the 543 seats, well over the two-thirds majority needed to amend the constitution.
n While it is unlikely that the opposition INDIA bloc will win a majority, it will be hoping to win at least 181 seats to prevent a two-thirds majority for the NDA.
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At least 33 Indian polling staff died on the last day of voting from heatstroke in just one state, a top election official said Sunday, after scorching temperatures gripped swathes of the country.
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While there have been reports of multiple deaths from the intense heatwave – with temperatures above 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit) in many places – the dozens of staff dying in one day marks an especially grim toll.
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group of people cold distribute buttermilk outside a polling station as the heat wave continues to grip the northern India during the last round of a six-week-long national election in Varanasi, India, Saturday, 1 June 2024.”,”caption”:”A group of people cold distribute buttermilk outside a polling station as the heat wave continues to grip the northern India during the last round of a six-week-long national election in Varanasi, India, Saturday, 1 June 2024.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Rajesh Kumar Singh/AP”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The India Meteorological Department said temperatures at Jhansi in Uttar Pradesh reached 46.9C (116F).
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Navdeep Rinwa, chief electoral officer for the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, where voting in the seventh and final stage of elections ended Saturday, said 33 polling personnel died due to the heat.
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The figure included security guards and sanitation staff.
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“A monetary compensation of 1.5 million rupees ($18,000) will be provided to the families of the deceased,” Rinwa told reporters.
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India’s six-week election was staggering in its size and logistical complexity, but also in the “unprecedented” scale of online disinformation, APF reports.
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The biggest democratic exercise in history brought with it a surge of false social media posts and instant messaging, ranging from doctored videos to unrelated images with false captions.
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Raqib Hameed Naik, from the US-based India Hate Lab, said they had “witnessed an unprecedented scale of disinformation” in the elections.
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“Conspiracy theories… were vigorously promoted to deepen the communal divide,” said Naik, whose organisation researches hate speech and disinformation.
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of the Missionaries of Charity, the order founded by Saint Teresa, stand in queue to cast their votes in Kolkata, India, Saturday, 1 June 2024.”,”caption”:”Nuns of the Missionaries of Charity, the order founded by Saint Teresa, stand in queue to cast their votes in Kolkata, India, Saturday, 1 June 2024. “,”credit”:”Photograph: Bikas Das/AP”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
With seven stages of voting stretched over six weeks, AFP factcheckers carried out 40 election-related debunks across India’s political divide.
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There were fake videos of Bollywood stars endorsing the opposition, as well as those purporting to show one person casting multiple votes. Some were crude or poked fun. Others were far more sinister and sophisticated productions aimed to deliberately mislead.
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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance, the NDA bloc, is enjoying an early lead as votes are counted, pulling ahead in 154 seats of the total 543 in the lower house of parliament.
n Early trends show the opposition INDIA alliance leading in 120 seats.
n The first votes counted are postal ballots, which are paper ballots, mostly cast by troops serving outside their home constituencies or officials away from home on election duty.
n This year, postal votes were also offered to voters over 85 years of age and people with disabilities to allow them to vote from home.
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Janata Party’s (BJP) supporters hold cut-outs of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his election campaign rally, in New Delhi, India, 22 May 2024.”,”caption”:”Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) supporters hold cut-outs of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his election campaign rally, in New Delhi, India, 22 May 2024. “,”credit”:”Photograph: Adnan Abidi/Reuters”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1717469771000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”22.56 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1717470366000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”23.06 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1717470295000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”23.04 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”23.04″,”title”:”Modi’s BJP-led alliance has early lead”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 4 Jun 2024 01.35 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Mon 3 Jun 2024 22.12 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According to some exit polls, Modi and the BJP could be headed for a two-thirds majority in parliament, giving them an even stronger victory than in the 2019 elections.
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Should the BJP achieve such a historic win, it could have far-reaching consequences for India’s future. The greatest fear among many is that this would enable the BJP to have the votes to amend India’s constitution, which currently enshrines India as a secular democracy where all religions are regarded as equal.
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But during his decade in power, Modi and the BJP have pursued a Hindu nationalist agenda, an ideological project which believes India should be a Hindu state. Opponents say that the ultimate aim of the BJP would be to remove references to secularism from the constitution document, reshaping India – particularly for its minorities – forever. Modi has denied he plans to change the constitution but during the campaign several BJP candidates spoke of the need to get a two-thirds majority in order to protect India as a nation for Hindus.
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Kashmiri Muslim woman shows her marked finger after casting her vote outside a polling station during the sixth phase of the Indian general elections on the outskirts of Anantnag in south Kashmir, the summer capital of Indian Kashmir, 25 May 2024.”,”caption”:”A Kashmiri Muslim woman shows her marked finger after casting her vote outside a polling station during the sixth phase of the Indian general elections on the outskirts of Anantnag in south Kashmir, the summer capital of Indian Kashmir, 25 May 2024. “,”credit”:”Photograph: Farooq Khan/EPA”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1717467155000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”22.12 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1717469907000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”22.58 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1717469890000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”22.58 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”22.58″,”title”:”What will a two-thirds majority mean for India’s future?”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Hannah 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“We have created a world record of 642 million proud Indian voters. This is a historic moment,” Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar told reporters on Monday.
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Although the 2024 turnout is higher than the 612 million voters who cast their ballots in 2019, it is about one percentage point lower than the 67.4% turnoutin 2019.
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Analysts have partly blamed the lower turnout on a searing heatwave across northern India with temperatures in excess of 45C (113F).
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At least 33 polling staff died from heatstroke on Saturday in Uttar Pradesh state alone, where temperatures hit 46.9C (116.4F).
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Polling should have been scheduled to end a month earlier, Kumar acknowledged. “We should not have done it in so much heat”, he said.
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Before counting even began the BJP had won one seat, in the constituency of Surat, where Mukesh Dalal, from the ruling Bharatiya Janata party (BJP), won the seat by default after every other candidate was either disqualified or dropped out of the race. It was the first time in 73 years that Surat’s candidate was appointed, not elected.
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Guardian correspondent Hannah Ellis-Petersen reported at the time: Surat is not the only constituency in Gujarat to witness swathes of candidates going up against the BJP suddenly withdrawing from the race. In Gandhinagar, where Amit Shah, the home minister and prime minister Narendra Modi’s right-hand man, is running, 16 opposition candidates dropped out before last Tuesday’s voting.
“,”elementId”:”e7c8c83d-5087-4766-91f7-768d4dbd79e0″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”‘Pressured to withdraw’: BJP accused of intimidation tactics in India polls “,”elementId”:”5036f305-4dd7-4a24-a25a-9933b7f2d1db”,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/14/bjp-accused-intimidation-india-elections-gujarat”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1717469029000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”22.43 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1717469721000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”22.55 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1717469135000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”22.45 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”22.45″,”title”:”BJP has won one seat – by default”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 4 Jun 2024 01.35 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Mon 3 Jun 2024 22.12 EDT”},{“id”:”665e7e288f08d143a021c109″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
With counting underway for just 10 minutes, the NDA bloc, led by Modi and his BJP, is leading in 11 seats to the opposition INDIA bloc’s four seats.
“,”elementId”:”5b799140-3ebf-4d01-a85a-a4fd5abeaf2f”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1717468712000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”22.38 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1717469569000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”22.52 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1717468833000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”22.40 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”22.40″,”title”:”Modi-led NDA bloc leads in 16 seats, INDIA bloc leads in six”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 4 Jun 2024 01.35 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Mon 3 Jun 2024 22.12 EDT”},{“id”:”665d28f88f08c6c67d9af422″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Along with the electronic record of each vote cast through the Electronic Voting Machines, a corresponding paper slip is also produced, which is visible to the voter, and then stored in a sealed box.
n The poll watchdog, the Electoral Commission of India (ECI), counts and verifies these paper slips against electronic votes at five randomly selected polling stations – drawn by lots – in different segments of each constituency.
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While critics and some members of civil society, including some political parties, want verification to be done at more booths to increase transparency, the Supreme Court has declined to order any change in the vote-counting process.
n The ECI has dismissed allegations that EVMs can be tampered, calling them foolproof.
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paramilitary soldiers arrive in the rain to guard a venue for the distribution of Electronic Voting Machines and other election material in Srinagar, Indian controlled Kashmir, Sunday, 12 May 2024.”,”caption”:”Indian paramilitary soldiers arrive in the rain to guard a venue for the distribution of Electronic Voting Machines and other election material in Srinagar, Indian controlled Kashmir, Sunday, 12 May 2024. “,”credit”:”Photograph: Mukhtar Khan/AP”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1717467155000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”22.12 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1717468632000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”22.37 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1717468632000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”22.37 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”22.37″,”title”:”How are votes verified?”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 4 Jun 2024 01.35 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Mon 3 Jun 2024 22.12 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Vote counting is now underway at counting stations in India’s 543 constituencies. Paper ballots, cast by those who cannot vote electronically, will be counted first. Then electronic votes will be counted. These are cast on electronic voting machines, which have been used since 2,000.
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Results are announced for each constituency as soon as counting is completed. India follows the first-past-the-post system, under which a candidate with the highest number of votes wins, regardless of garnering a majority or not.
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Result trends generally become clear by the afternoon of counting day and are flashed on television news networks. The official count from the Election Commission of India can come hours later.
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officials carry electronic voting machines (EVMs) at at a secure location.”,”caption”:”Polling officials carry electronic voting machines (EVMs) at at a secure location.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Ritesh Shukla/Getty Images”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
In past years, key trends have been clear by mid-afternoon with losers conceding defeat, even though full and final results may only come late on Tuesday night.
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Celebrations are expected at the headquarters of Modi’s BJP if the results reflect exit poll predictions.
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The winners of the general election are expected to form a new government by the middle of June.
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After the ECI announces the results for all 543 seats, the president invites the leader of the party, or an alliance, which has more than half the seats to form the government.
n The party or coalition with 272 or more seats then chooses a prime minister to lead the government.
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man transports an electronic voting machine on a pony as election officials walk to a polling booth in a remote mountain area on the eve of the first round of voting at Dessa village in Doda district, Jammu and Kashmir, India, 18 April.”,”caption”:”A man transports an electronic voting machine on a pony as election officials walk to a polling booth in a remote mountain area on the eve of the first round of voting at Dessa village in Doda district, Jammu and Kashmir, India, 18 April.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Channi Anand/AP”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:true,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1717467155000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”22.12 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1717468216000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”22.30 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1717468217000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”22.30 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”22.30″,”title”:”Vote counting begins – when will we know the results?”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 4 Jun 2024 01.35 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Mon 3 Jun 2024 22.12 EDT”},{“id”:”665d25088f08346bc8f54b4d”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Vote counting in India is decentralised and done simultaneously at counting stations in each of the 543 constituencies around the country.
n Counting is set to begin at 8 am (02.30 GMT) with the tallying of postal ballots that only select groups can use, including people with disabilities, or those involved in essential services including security forces and some government officials.
n After paper ballots, votes from the Electronic Voting Machines are counted. India has used the machines since 2000, moving away from paper ballots for national and state elections.
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personnel carry Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) and other voting materials as they leave for polling stations in Patna on 31 May 2024, on the eve of the seventh and final phase of voting in India’s general election”,”caption”:”Security personnel carry Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) and other voting materials as they leave for polling stations in Patna on 31 May 2024, on the eve of the seventh and final phase of voting in India’s general election”,”credit”:”Photograph: Sachin Kumar/AFP/Getty Images”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1717467155000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”22.12 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1717467466000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”22.17 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1717467419000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”22.16 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”22.16″,”title”:”How does vote counting work in the world’s biggest election?”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 4 Jun 2024 01.35 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Mon 3 Jun 2024 22.12 EDT”},{“id”:”665cfe018f08346bc8f54a64″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Hello and welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of India’s election results with me, Helen Sullivan.
“,”elementId”:”ba5a5246-5017-4ca0-b796-9be95c477a36″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
This election was the largest in world history, with almost a billion eligible voters and 642 million people turning out to vote, according to the Election Commission of India.
“,”elementId”:”7b8c0e49-b563-42c6-a2b4-7071728468c4″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
The Lok Sabha, “House of the People” or lower house, election started in mid-April and progressed over seven phases until 1 June, as a deadly heatwave gripped the country. Dozens of voters and election officials died during the process as temperatures approached 50C in some areas.
“,”elementId”:”f0a58208-1408-4284-86c0-6cdad6a17c2f”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Most voters used electronic voting machines, which means results will be declared today. Exit polls predict the election will be easily won by the prime minister, Narendra Modi, and his ruling Bharatiya Janata party-led alliance.
“,”elementId”:”68b23c47-97d3-4f4d-9e46-c4069bd74cd1″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
But Modi will be eyeing a two-thirds majority, which would have significant implications for India’s 1.4 billion citizens. The opposition INDIA bloc needs to win more than 180 of the 543 seats to prevent the two-thirds majority for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance.
“,”elementId”:”83ac1cd4-3593-4b8a-b5a9-e3ce5823c0ee”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Vote counting is about to start, around 8am IST (in roughly 15 minutes’ time). We’ll have more detail shortly on how the process works.
“,”elementId”:”6f5865bc-6c28-44e8-bc93-3f930055712a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”
Here is what we know so far:
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- n
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According to exit polls released on Saturday night, Modi and the BJP are looking at a decisive win and may even gain enough seats to win a two-thirds majority in parliament, which would allow the government to make far-reaching amendments to the constitution.
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Voting in the seventh and final staggered round of the six-week poll ended on Saturday, held in brutally hot conditions across swaths of the country. At least 33 polling staff died from heatstroke in Uttar Pradesh state alone on Saturday, where temperatures hit 46.9C (116.4F), election officials said.
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A top opponent of Narendra Modi vowed on Sunday to keep fighting “dictatorship” before he returned to jail, following elections widely expected to produce another landslide victory for the Hindu-nationalist leader. Arvind Kejriwal is among several opposition leaders under criminal investigation, with colleagues describing his arrest the month before the general elections began in April as a “political conspiracy” orchestrated by Modi’s BJP.
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Modi’s political opponents and international rights groups have long sounded the alarm about threats to India’s democracy. US thinktank Freedom House said this year the BJP had “increasingly used government institutions to target political opponents”.
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Modi’s party won the regional vote in Arunachal Pradesh, a state bordering China, while a local party swept to power in Sikkim, a Himalayan state, officials and politicians said on Sunday. Provincial elections in Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim were held on 19 April simultaneously with the first phase of the national polls.
n The BJP comfortably retained power in Arunchal Pradesh by winning 46 of the 60 seats.
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Hannah Ellis-Petersen
Rahul Gandhi, the most recognisable face of the opposition Congress party, is ahead by a wide margin in both seats where he is contestesting: Raebareli in Uttar Pradesh and Wayanad in Kerala.
It’s a marked difference from 2019 when Gandhi lost the family seat in Uttar Pradesh after the BJP swept the state. But this time, early counting suggests that the BJP will not perform so well in Uttar Pradesh, which is home to a population larger than Brazil and is considered to be one of India’s most politically important states.
![India's opposition Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi.](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/46d31d7a0765cf019da4abe2cdbc7869e7cfaf70/0_0_2130_1278/master/2130.jpg?width=465&dpr=1&s=none)
This was a story we did about the decline of the Gandhi dynasty and Gandhi’s battle to win Raebareli in this election:
Three hours into the count, NDA has majority with 294 of 543 seats
It is almost 11am IST, which means the vote count has been underway for just under three hours. We’re expecting results of seat gained and lost at the earliest in the early afternoon, local time.
For now, with all 543 seats reporting some results, the Modi-led NDA bloc leads in 292 of the 543 seats up for grabs, or 54%, with Modi’s party, the BJP, responsible for the vast majority of these leads.
![A man stands in front of a poster featuring PM Modi and Bharatiya Janata Party election candidate Annamalai, outside its party office in Chennai, India, 4 June 2024.](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/9202b03f6f3cb9984b7302e2b43091fb7e83fcd2/0_373_5991_3595/master/5991.jpg?width=465&dpr=1&s=none)
The opposition INDIA bloc has 222 seats, with the Congress party responsible for most of these votes. It is well ahead of the 181 needed to prevent the NDA from securing a two-thirds majority. But again, this is early days.
Aside from the one seat won by the BJP by default in Surat, after every other candidate was either disqualified or dropped out, no seats have been called for any party.
Via Reuters: If Modi’s victory is confirmed, his BJP will have triumphed in a vitriolic campaign in which parties accused each other of religious bias and of posing a threat to sections of the population.
Investors have already cheered the prospects of another Modi term, expecting it to deliver further years of strong economic growth and pro-business reforms, while a possible two-thirds majority in parliament could allow major changes to the constitution, rivals and critics fear.
“The next government’s main task will be to set India on the path of getting rich before it ages,” the Times of India newspaper said in an editorial on Tuesday, referring to the young, working age population in the world’s most populous nation. “The clock’s ticking.”
![Young Indian voters show their ink-marked fingers after voting during the seventh and last phase of the Indian parliament elections at a polling station on the outskirts of Amritsar, Punjab, India, 1 June 2024.](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/2f2267b0de9745abcf792e8633413eeaf4a89518/0_67_3968_2382/master/3968.jpg?width=465&dpr=1&s=none)
Modi’s alliance gains majority in early count, but falls far short of landslide
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s alliance has a majority in early vote counting trends, but the numbers as they stand at the moment are well short of the landslide predicted in exit polls.
Only about 10%-15% of the total votes have been counted so far, according to Indian TV channels.
BJP alone accounts for nearly 250 of the seats in which the NDA is leading, compared to the 303 it won in 2019. Its bloc, the NDA, needs to win at lest 359 to gain the two thirds majority that would allow it to change the constitution. Modi has set a goal of winning 400 seats.
![Volunteers carry Electronic Voting Machines at an election vote counting station in Mumbai on 4 June 2024.](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/cd79e7fe5a5f70d307562a76577a87368b73e150/0_256_3931_2359/master/3931.jpg?width=465&dpr=1&s=none)
Trends have also showed Modi leading, then trailing and leading again in his seat in the Hindu holy city of Varanasi.
The first votes counted are postal ballots, which are paper ballots, mostly cast by troops serving outside their home constituencies or officials away from home on election duty.
This year, postal votes were also offered to voters over 85 years of age and people with disabilities to allow them to vote from home.
The chief minister of India’s capital New Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal, surrendered to prison authorities on Sunday as the interim bail granted by the country’s top court in a corruption case ended, his party officials said.
Kejriwal, a firebrand politician who has been a vocal opponent of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, was arrested by the federal financial crime-fighting agency in March in connection with alleged corruption in the awarding of liquor licences.
Kejriwal has denied the allegations.
![Arvind Kejriwal in front of a poster depicting him behind bars.](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/f789bec554b85c12342402ac7440393e1e731a0b/0_118_1696_1018/master/1696.jpg?width=465&dpr=1&s=none)
Last month the Supreme Court granted Kejriwal bail until 1 June, the last day of India‘s nationwide seven-phase vote, on condition he returned to pre-trial detention on June 2.
“I was given a 21-day (relief) by the Supreme Court. These 21 days were unforgettable,” he said before returning to jail.
“I did not waste even a minute. I campaigned to save the country,” he said.
Hannah Ellis-Petersen
Modi’s decade in power has seen the government accused by rights groups of growing authoritarianism and pursuing Hindutva [Hindu-first] policies that have eroded the rights and freedoms of minorities, in particular India’s 200 million Muslims.
As the BJP is expected to march on with its Hindu nationalist agenda if re-elected, political observers have pointed to the mountainous holy state of Uttarakhand as a window on what a Modi third term could mean for India’s fragile secular democracy.
![Muslims stand in queues to cast their votes in the seventh and final phase of national elections, in Varanasi, India, Saturday, 1 June 2024.](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/e708e4a3641c712d332afab60dbf0ef9e55137f1/0_0_5616_3370/master/5616.jpg?width=465&dpr=1&s=none)
For centuries, Uttarakhand has been known as the “land of the gods’’. Stretching high up into the Himalayas, the state is home to tens of thousands of Hindu temples and some of the holiest Hindu pilgrimage sites. It is also here that the BJP government has accused of weaponising Uttarakhand’s sacred status for politics, making the state a “laboratory” for some of the most extreme rightwing policies and rhetoric targeting the Muslim minority.
When will we know the final results?
If you’re just tuning in: Counting began just over two hours ago, at 8:00 am (02.30 GMT), in key centres in each state, with the data fed into computers.
Votes were cast on electronic voting machines, so the tally will likely be rapid, with results expected within hours.
“People should know about the strength of Indian democracy”, chief election commissioner Rajiv Kumar said Monday, vowing there was a “robust counting process in place”.
![People watch the election results live on a television at the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) office in Chennai on 4 June 2024.](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/337a4d4fc7430123dea07272631a16cd509ce742/0_402_6036_3622/master/6036.jpg?width=465&dpr=1&s=none)
India’s largest ever election was staggering in its size and logistical complexity, with voters casting their ballots in megacities New Delhi and Mumbai, as well as in sparsely populated forest areas and in the high-altitude territory of Kashmir, AFP reports.
India’s major TV networks have reporters outside each counting centre, competing to flash results for each of the 543 elected seats in the lower house of parliament.
In past years, key trends have been clear by mid-afternoon with losers conceding defeat, even though full and final results may only come late on Tuesday night.
Celebrations are expected at the headquarters of Modi’s BJP if the results reflect exit poll predictions. The winning post is a simple majority of 272 seats, and the BJP won 303 at the last polls in 2019.
India’s election by the numbers
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Nearly 970 million people, more than 10% of the world’s population, were eligible to vote. India, with a population of 1.428 billion, is the world’s most populous country after overtaking China last year.
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Turnout averaged 66% across the seven phases, according to official data, which means 642 million people voted: the most in any election in history worldwide. It was a 1% lower turnout than the 2019 elections.
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543: the number of seats up for grab in the Lok Sabha or lower house.
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272: the number of seats needed for a simple majority.
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400 seats: that is the number of seats the Modi-led NDA alliance is hoping to win – almost 75%, well above the two-thirds majority that would allow the NDA to make changes to India’s constitution.
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181: the number of seats the opposition INDIA alliance needs to win to prevent a two-thirds majority.
![Polling officials check election materials inside an indoor stadium ahead of the seventh and last phase of India’s general election, in Kolkata, India, 31 May 2024.](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/a74906f6d6a83880bbbfd594cba9215dfad0f637/0_0_5500_3301/master/5500.jpg?width=465&dpr=1&s=none)
Modi is now back in the lead in his seat of Varanasi, according to India’s electoral commission. The NDA bloc is currently leading in 304 seats to the INDIA bloc’s 207 (which, for the moment, means the NDA does not have the two-thirds majority it so desperately wants).
Why would a third term for Modi be historic?
Hannah Ellis-Petersen
According to a flurry of exit polls released on Saturday night, Modi and his Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) are looking at a decisive win and may even gain seats to win a two-thirds majority in parliament, which would allow the government to make far-reaching amendments to the constitution.
It would be a historic achievement for Modi, India’s strongman prime minister, whose Hindu nationalist politics have significantly re-shaped India’s secular democracy over the past decade.
No prime minister since Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first post-independence premier, has won three consecutive terms.
![Supporters of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi worship a cutout of Modi on the day of the general election results, outside the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters in New Delhi, India, 4 June 2024.](https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/3ad41fbaab2f8ef376cb30cfaeb8089a65c628f4/0_0_5500_3299/master/5500.jpg?width=465&dpr=1&s=none)
Hannah Ellis-Petersen
The Facebook and Instagram owner Meta approved a series of AI-manipulated political adverts during India’s election that spread disinformation and incited religious violence, according to a report shared exclusively with the Guardian in May.
Facebook approved adverts containing known slurs towards Muslims in India, such as “let’s burn this vermin” and “Hindu blood is spilling, these invaders must be burned”, as well as Hindu supremacist language and disinformation about political leaders.
Another approved advert called for the execution of an opposition leader they falsely claimed wanted to “erase Hindus from India”, next to a picture of a Pakistan flag.
The adverts were created and submitted to Meta’s ad library – the database of all adverts on Facebook and Instagram – by India Civil Watch International (ICWI) and Ekō, a corporate accountability organisation, to test Meta’s mechanisms for detecting and blocking political content that could prove inflammatory or harmful during India’s six-week election.
According to the report, all of the adverts “were created based upon real hate speech and disinformation prevalent in India, underscoring the capacity of social media platforms to amplify existing harmful narratives”.
The adverts were submitted midway through voting:
Just to recap: only one seat has been won so far, and it was won by the BJP by default:
Before counting even began the BJP had won one seat, in the constituency of Surat, where Mukesh Dalal, from the ruling Bharatiya Janata party (BJP), won the seat by default after every other candidate was either disqualified or dropped out of the race. It was the first time in 73 years that Surat’s candidate was appointed, not elected.
Guardian correspondent Hannah Ellis-Petersen reported at the time: Surat is not the only constituency in Gujarat to witness swathes of candidates going up against the BJP suddenly withdrawing from the race. In Gandhinagar, where Amit Shah, the home minister and prime minister Narendra Modi’s right-hand man, is running, 16 opposition candidates dropped out before last Tuesday’s voting.
Meanwhile Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears to be trailing in his own seat of Varanasi, according to India’s Electoral Commission.
The NDA bloc, meanwhile, is leading in 297 seats to the opposition INDIA bloc’s 208 seats.
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