Michigan primary 2024 live: Biden faces crucial test with ‘uncommitted’ voters over Gaza war in swing state

Don’t count on a Nikki Haley 2028 run going anywhere

With projections showing another runaway victory for Donald Trump over Nikki Haley, many may be thinking what comes next for the former South Carolina Governor.

The Independent’s Eric Garcia says that those that might be hoping for a more successful 2028 (including team Haley), should perhaps not hold their breath…

Historically, the Republican who comes in second place for the Republican nomination for president becomes the top guy (and it has so far only been guys) in the next presidential primary.

After Ronald Reagan put up an unexpected fight against incumbent President Gerald Ford, he became the 1980 nominee. When George H W Bush lost to Mr Reagan in 1980, he became vice president, which set him up to become the 1988 presidential nominee. And when John McCain lost to Mr Bush’s son George W Bush in 2000, he beat Mitt Romney in 2008 to win the nomination before Mr Romney became the 2012 nominee. You get the picture.

But Donald Trump smashed that norm.

Some may admire Ms Haley’s gumption for staying in the primary and depleting Mr Trump of his resources. But should Mr Trump win, he will undoubtedly never forget and seek retribution.

If Mr Trump were to lose, she would immediately shoulder the blame for dragging out the primary when Mr Trump could have focused solely on Joe Biden.

Mike Bedigan28 February 2024 01:28

One county to watch: Wayne County

From The Independent’s Senior Washington Correspondent, Eric Garcia:

President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump both hope to put up strong showings tonight in the Democratic and Republican primaries in Michigan, respectively.

But their fates will ultimately lie in Wayne County, the state’s most populous district, and one of the four major Detroit counties. For Mr Biden, the district has the highest concentration of Arab American voters as it houses Dearborn. Arab-American voters have sharply criticised Biden’s support for Israel in its assault on Gaza as it wages war against Hamas. More than 29,000 people have died as a result of Israel’s bombing.

If a large swath of Dearborn votes “uncommitted,” it will send a significant dent in Mr Biden’s margin of victory.

But Wayne counties is also Michigan’s blackest county. Black people make up a little less than 38 per cent of the county’s population, most of them located in the city of Detroit. The Biden campaign has feared a lack of enthusiasm among Black voters for some time, so if it sees low turnout from blacker precincts, they will know they have more work to do.

Mr Trump’s campaign has to worry too. So far, he’s performed the worst in suburban counties. When he won 98 out of 99 counties in Iowa, he lost Johnson County, home of Sioux City and the very type of college-educated white voters that broke for Nikki Haley. On Saturday, he lost wealthy educated parts of South Carolina like Beaufort County, home of Hilton Head, and Charleston.

Wayne County includes numerous suburbs like Belleville. Trump’s weaknesses in the suburbs might be on full display in these areas.

Mike Bedigan28 February 2024 01:09

Watch: Presidential primary: Voters head to the polls in Michigan

Mike Bedigan28 February 2024 00:40

In pictures: Michigan voters head to the polls

Mike Bedigan28 February 2024 00:20

How are the polls looking in Michigan?

Ahead of the results of the GOP primary in Michigan on Tuesday, Donald Trump is projected a clear lead over Nikki Haley.

Polling site FiveThirtyEight put the president at commanding 78.7 per cent of the vote as of Monday.

Ms Haley, Mr Trump’s only significant remaining rival in the competition, lags far behind on 21.8 per cent.

Mike Bedigan28 February 2024 00:05

Biden has bigger problems in Michigan than Gaza protest votes

Eric Garcia writes:

Ever since Israel began its campaign in Gaza after the October 7 Hamas attacks, there has been much speculation around how President Joe Biden’s support for Israel will affect his prospects in Michigan – a state with a sizeable Muslim population.

Some Muslim-Americans – including congresswoman Rashida Tlaib, the only Palestinian-American lawmaker in Congress – have chosen to vote “uncommitted” in Tuesday’s primary as a mark of protest over his handling of the conflict. And this has left some Democrats fearing that a poor showing in February might hurt him in the November general election in a state that Donald Trump won in 2016, before Mr Biden turned it blue again in 2020.

Most of the focus has been on Dearborn, a town with an overwhelmingly Muslim population, and the abandonment its residents feel after backing Mr Biden to beat Mr Trump in 2020.

But, while this may be the biggest talking point as voters cast their ballots, the support of Muslim Americans might actually be the least of Mr Biden’s problems in Michigan.

Continue reading…

Oliver O’Connell27 February 2024 23:45

Inside the chaotic Republican rivalry that could swing the 2024 election

Michigan residents will on Tuesday help decide whether Donald Trump or Nikki Haley will represent the Republican Party in this year’s presidential election.

After the public has its say, local Republican officials will meet at a party convention on Saturday 2 March to add their own votes in a two-stage primary process.

But this year, there will be not one but two duelling conventions, convened by two rival party leaders – both of whom claim they are the real one.

Such is the chaos that has engulfed the Great Lake State’s GOP since its disastrous showing in the 2022 midterm elections, which saw Democrats take both houses of the state legislature and the governor’s seat for the first time in decades.

Io Dodds takes a look at what’s happening:

Oliver O’Connell27 February 2024 23:00

Washington stares down the barrel of the first shutdown of 2024

John Bowden writes:

With Congress under a 1 March deadline to reauthorise several major government programs, Washington is once again playing shutdown roulette. And all eyes are on the House of Representatives, where a two-vote GOP majority holds the chamber and Mr Johnson faces the constant threat of being ousted by his own colleagues.

On Friday, funding for a wide range of government programs under four major umbrellas will cease: Military Construction and Veterans Affairs; Energy and Water Development; Transportation, Housing and Urban Development; Agriculture, Rural Development, and the Food and Drug Administration. The immediate effects would not be devastating, though federal workers could see their paychecks suspended and many public-facing operations of government — like Veterans Affairs offices — would temporarily shutter.

Continue reading…

Oliver O’Connell27 February 2024 22:15

Schumer says Ukraine will ‘lose the war’ if spending package isn’t passed

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer on Tuesday said Ukraine’s defence forces would ultimately be defeated by Russia’s invading army if the US fails to approve a supplemental defence spending bill which includes funds for Kyiv, as well as defence aid to Israel and Taiwan.

Speaking outside the White House following an Oval Office meeting with President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, House Speaker Mike Johnson, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Mr Schumer called the session “productive” and said he and his colleagues “are making good progress” towards a solution.

He added that Mr Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, “said unequivocally he wants to avoid a government shutdown”.

Andrew Feinberg reports:

Oliver O’Connell27 February 2024 21:30

Does TSA still run if the government shuts down?

During federal shutdowns, government employees are told not to report for work and placed on furlough – although, since 2019, they are now paid retroactively when the impasse comes to an end, rather than forced to lose out on wages altogether.

What does that mean for the TSA and other public safety bodies?

Oliver O’Connell27 February 2024 20:45