Nancy Pelosi’s Israel Shift May Not Be What It Seems

On Friday, 40 House Democrats sent a letter to President Biden urging him “to reconsider your recent decision to authorize the transfer of a new arms package to Israel, and to withhold this and any future offensive arms transfers” until a “full investigation” of last week’s World Central Kitchen attack is completed.

“In light of the recent strike against aid workers and the ever-worsening humanitarian crisis,” the letter read, “we believe it is unjustifiable to approve these weapons transfers.”

Most of the Democratic signatories were predictable: members of the Squad, leaders of the Progressive Caucus, certain rank-and-file members who happen to be from Michigan. One signature, however, stood out among the others—the representative from California’s 11^th District, Nancy Pelosi.

There hasn’t been much daylight between the former speaker and Israel since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack. She’s reserved most of her scorn, in the heated debates since, for pro-Palestinian protesters. In January, she suggested that calling for a cease-fire was “Mr. Putin’s message.” Although some protesters, she said, were “spontaneous and organic and sincere,” others, she posited, “are connected to Russia.”

A statement from Pelosi’s office explaining her decision to sign the letter offered a measured rationale. “Speaker Pelosi is sympathetic to some of the thoughts in the letter, and she feels very strongly that there must be a comprehensive, independent investigation into the horrific killing of the World Central Kitchen heroes,” a spokesperson told Slate. “Speaker Pelosi knows President Biden’s support for Israel and empathy with the innocent civilians in Gaza, and she respects his judgment in how to proceed.” She’s unlikely, then, even with the signing of this letter, to personally block traffic on the Golden Gate Bridge anytime soon.

Still, calling for a halt in arms transfers to Israel is a sharp change in tone (and reflective of her position as the representative from San Francisco rather than the Democratic leader). It also reinforces the degree to which simmering Democratic frustration with Israel’s conduct in its war against Hamas has reached a boil following the WCK attack. Biden, the State Department, and leading pro-Israel Democratic voices in Congress, for the first time in recent memory, have suggested that the U.S. put conditions on military aid to Israel going forward.

And the number of House Democrats is still growing. The letter was reopened for signatures this week, as many members who had hoped to sign were overseas on congressional delegations. The number had climbed to 56 by Monday evening.

Now, letters are just that: letters. They allow members to get on the record to register dissent with an administrative policy that’s becoming less popular by the day. But there is a central issue—the central issue remaining in this Congress—where the red-hot anger following the WCK attack could complicate an already-delicate vote count.

At long last, Speaker Mike Johnson is preparing to use the upcoming work sessions of Congress to figure out assistance to Ukraine. Though he may spend weeks spinning his wheels trying to find a way to make Ukraine aid more palatable for House Republicans—and thus preserve his job—the most straightforward way he pushes it through is if the House votes on the bill the Senate has already passed, which bundles together military assistance for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.

For months, the main issue holding up the package has been Republican hostility to further support for Ukraine. That’s still the main issue.

But now Democratic members’ unease with sending further billions to Israel is becoming a live issue of its own. Democrats would have to put up the lion’s share of votes to pass the package, and about 20 already weren’t prepared to support it given the Israel assistance. Following the WCK attack, that number could only grow.

With each passing day, then, getting aid to Ukraine—a goal Johnson professes he wants to accomplish—will become more difficult. Ukraine military assistance isn’t becoming an easier vote for Republicans, and Israeli military assistance isn’t becoming an easier vote for Democrats. (And then there’s poor Taiwan, stuck in the middle.) Splitting up the package into separate votes wouldn’t make the passage of either more likely—in either the House or the Senate, which would have to vote again, in a time-consuming process that delays the transfer of sorely needed ammunition to Ukraine.

Will the U.S. withhold weapons from Israel—or fail to provide them to Ukraine? In the end, you wouldn’t want to bet against a bill that’s such a high priority for the United States government and its allies. But many more members could be holding their noses as they vote for it.

As for Pelosi, her spokesman had no comment on any “potential” legislative package.

“We will have to see what Speaker Johnson actually brings to the floor,” he said. “But as you know, she is a strong supporter of assistance for Ukraine in its defense of democracy and is determined to make sure they have the resources they need to win.”